Thaksin vs Newin, PueThai vs BhumiJaiThai, the politics of electionists

Once again, @can_nw has tweeted the short history in some little part of thai politics, but it has meaning and its own agenda in this coming General Election on July 3rd, 2011. I translated his series of tweets and has put together on here. Enjoy!


Dusit Poll result of E-san (Northeast) party list is very interesting, 55.21% vote for PueThai party, 19.74% for Democrats party and 12.96% for BhumiJaiThai party. Democrats is break-even, but the raise of BhumiJaithai voiced votes to 12.96% in E-san has significant meaning to MPs constituency election.


If PueThai wants seats more than half of the parliament, the party has to win all MP seats in E-san, just like they did in 2005 (People Power party then). Thaksin probably is well aware of the situation in E-san, that's why many UDD core leaders from e-san are all listed in party-list safe zone, to gain more popularity.


In 2007 general election, the Anti-Thaksin group supported 'PuePanDin' to intercept People Power party (PueThai now), But Pracha Promnork (PPD party leader) failed to reach the goal, it was the total loss. Newin head PeoplePower party e-san team in 2007 election, trend of Thaksin was so strong, lots of 'electricity poles' just got elected to be MPs.


The BhumiJaiThai Defeated in SakolNakorn and MahaSarakem's bi-election recently, make Newin push the Constitution amendment to smaller the constituency size. The strategy to fight in smaller constituencies was tested in Surin and NakornRatchasima's bi-election, and BhumiJaiThai had won.


The interesting part is Newin has been focusing on MP candidates from provincial and Municipal administrative organization to run in '1 constituency- 1 number' for BhumiJaiThai party. But keep an eye on how Yingluck campaign, trend of 'ungrateful party' might make Newin's small constituency strategy got interrupted.


However, E-san field will determine whether PueThai would get more than half of the house & whether Newin to get under 10 MPs. In the 2011 General election, the Anti-Thaksin group probably will put their hope in Newin, just like when they put their hope in PuePanDin party in year 2007.


So, here it is... the elctionists... the work the hardest during the election campaign. This shows their capability in strategic management. I am wondering, how hard these people really worth for the people cried for them, fought for them and elected them.

image from mthai.com