Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Behind Newin's analysis on the 2011 General Election

in case you missed the news. Yesterday (May 25) Newin had lunch with political journalists. Something he said become news since yesterday evening. Newin gave out his election situation analysis as a person in the field for such a long time. How credible he is, he was Thaksin's right hand in the general election that People Power party (now PueThai) won the landslide victory.


image from The Nation


Newin said even if PueThai party win the majority seats in parliament, Yingluk won't get to be PM, and if Democrats party doesn't win most seats, Abhisit has to resign, as it has been quite party's tradition so far. On the side note, Nuttawut, PueThai party list MP candidate, said if PueThai win most seat and don't get to be government, red-shirt would take it.


The way Thai Parliament goes, the party that win majority seats get first opportunity to set up the government. then they present policy to parliament, and cast the votes from MPs in the house. There are incident in the past the party that won most seats didn't get to be government. Their policy didn't get enough votes from other party. then second most MPs party got a chance to set up the government.


And to reason why Newin said such a thing, @can_nw has a reason for it. (translated from @can_nw tweets on morning May 26)


"Preliminary situation, PueThai trend is stronger than expected in North, E-san & Bkk. the variation factor will be the 3rd party. Core leader of the variation party have to adjust the strategy, very focus, any former MPs has loose base had to be retracted. Somsak Tepsutin (BhumiJaiThai) only focus at Sukothai. In the middle of storm, have to hold on to even just a rotten pole. Suwat has been planning for a long time to take over Korat (NakornRatchasima), same as Seh.Nun-Pradit hold on to Pijit. So politics expert like Newin has to slow down 'female PM' trend with some colors, otherwise BhumijaiThai will be too quiet. 
Yinhluk campaigning (image from news.sanook.com)


But as former Shinnawatr-family's close aide, How couldn't Newin know tht real acting female PM is 'the lady' (KunYing), not Yingluk. If Newin just glance around PueThai's party-list no.1, he'd recognize the old same security guard sent straight from KunYing. There's no word like 'give up' in Newin's dictionary, his symptom yesterday look like surrender but not giving up."

Monday, May 23, 2011

Thaksin vs Newin, PueThai vs BhumiJaiThai, the politics of electionists

Once again, @can_nw has tweeted the short history in some little part of thai politics, but it has meaning and its own agenda in this coming General Election on July 3rd, 2011. I translated his series of tweets and has put together on here. Enjoy!


Dusit Poll result of E-san (Northeast) party list is very interesting, 55.21% vote for PueThai party, 19.74% for Democrats party and 12.96% for BhumiJaiThai party. Democrats is break-even, but the raise of BhumiJaithai voiced votes to 12.96% in E-san has significant meaning to MPs constituency election.


If PueThai wants seats more than half of the parliament, the party has to win all MP seats in E-san, just like they did in 2005 (People Power party then). Thaksin probably is well aware of the situation in E-san, that's why many UDD core leaders from e-san are all listed in party-list safe zone, to gain more popularity.


In 2007 general election, the Anti-Thaksin group supported 'PuePanDin' to intercept People Power party (PueThai now), But Pracha Promnork (PPD party leader) failed to reach the goal, it was the total loss. Newin head PeoplePower party e-san team in 2007 election, trend of Thaksin was so strong, lots of 'electricity poles' just got elected to be MPs.


The BhumiJaiThai Defeated in SakolNakorn and MahaSarakem's bi-election recently, make Newin push the Constitution amendment to smaller the constituency size. The strategy to fight in smaller constituencies was tested in Surin and NakornRatchasima's bi-election, and BhumiJaiThai had won.


The interesting part is Newin has been focusing on MP candidates from provincial and Municipal administrative organization to run in '1 constituency- 1 number' for BhumiJaiThai party. But keep an eye on how Yingluck campaign, trend of 'ungrateful party' might make Newin's small constituency strategy got interrupted.


However, E-san field will determine whether PueThai would get more than half of the house & whether Newin to get under 10 MPs. In the 2011 General election, the Anti-Thaksin group probably will put their hope in Newin, just like when they put their hope in PuePanDin party in year 2007.


So, here it is... the elctionists... the work the hardest during the election campaign. This shows their capability in strategic management. I am wondering, how hard these people really worth for the people cried for them, fought for them and elected them.
image from mthai.com



Sunday, May 15, 2011

Why Yingluk for Pue Thai party

This quote is translation of series of tweets in Thai language from @can_nw, editor of the Nation Weekend edition.


"last fews yrs, Yingluk isn't just a lill sis to Thaksin, she's been a real-estate person and work with the public through Thaicom foundation. This last 2 years, people in provinces see her more often in sporting event as big sponsor of 'Thaicom FA cup,' knock-out football league of Thailand. Beside the public sport events, education is also main activity of Thaicom foundation, with Songsak Premsuk working along side.


Songsak Premsuk is a childhood friend from SuanKularb school, founded 'Mathbox company' that did advertisement for Thaksin since 1991. Then Thaksin jointly own, changed the company's name to 'SC Mathbox,' the company was behind marketing of Thaksin election campaign in 1997.


in year 2001, SC Mathbox made the advertisement campaign for Thai-rak-Thai party, the one came with populism campaign that received votes beyond expectation. Songsak was managing ITV for Thaksin for a while, now he is overseeing 'Voice TV' for Oak (Thaksin's son), and helps out at Thaicom foundation.


Yingluk's image with PueThai leaders during 'compromising' time, believed to came from SC Mathbox's idea that Thaksin trust. Thaksin pick Yingluk to be the country's leader that will lead Thailand to unite, because she can talk to any power group.


In present front-liners group, Yingluk is very close to Gen. Anupong Paojinda, from the time when Samak Suntoravet was Defence minister. If you could remember when Thaksin was back in Thailand, he went to funeral of Gen. Anupong's mother, Yingluk was the co-ordinator.


Selecting Yingluk ,is to solve the problem that 'green color' might be PueThai party's obstacle to form the govt."






So here is a piece of my mind:
if YOU, the old-fashion yellow, hope for the coup to happen if PueThai win (because your 'vote NO' campaign help PueThai to win). RE-THINK, the coup might not happen as you wish!


The real Democracy is learning to leave with what the majority agree. If you don't like it, wait until it's your turn, you come out, you help campaign for ones you think deserve it, then cast your vote.


I know it sound naive,  sound idealistic, but that's how real DEMOCRACY should be.