Behind Newin's analysis on the 2011 General Election

in case you missed the news. Yesterday (May 25) Newin had lunch with political journalists. Something he said become news since yesterday evening. Newin gave out his election situation analysis as a person in the field for such a long time. How credible he is, he was Thaksin's right hand in the general election that People Power party (now PueThai) won the landslide victory.

image from The Nation

Newin said even if PueThai party win the majority seats in parliament, Yingluk won't get to be PM, and if Democrats party doesn't win most seats, Abhisit has to resign, as it has been quite party's tradition so far. On the side note, Nuttawut, PueThai party list MP candidate, said if PueThai win most seat and don't get to be government, red-shirt would take it.


The way Thai Parliament goes, the party that win majority seats get first opportunity to set up the government. then they present policy to parliament, and cast the votes from MPs in the house. There are incident in the past the party that won most seats didn't get to be government. Their policy didn't get enough votes from other party. then second most MPs party got a chance to set up the government.


And to reason why Newin said such a thing, @can_nw has a reason for it. (translated from @can_nw tweets on morning May 26)


"Preliminary situation, PueThai trend is stronger than expected in North, E-san & Bkk. the variation factor will be the 3rd party. Core leader of the variation party have to adjust the strategy, very focus, any former MPs has loose base had to be retracted. Somsak Tepsutin (BhumiJaiThai) only focus at Sukothai. In the middle of storm, have to hold on to even just a rotten pole. Suwat has been planning for a long time to take over Korat (NakornRatchasima), same as Seh.Nun-Pradit hold on to Pijit. So politics expert like Newin has to slow down 'female PM' trend with some colors, otherwise BhumijaiThai will be too quiet. 

Yinhluk campaigning (image from news.sanook.com)

But as former Shinnawatr-family's close aide, How couldn't Newin know tht real acting female PM is 'the lady' (KunYing), not Yingluk. If Newin just glance around PueThai's party-list no.1, he'd recognize the old same security guard sent straight from KunYing. There's no word like 'give up' in Newin's dictionary, his symptom yesterday look like surrender but not giving up."